At least 3 and at most 10 confirmed head-to-head matches from the available archive. Historical frequency is not the probability of the next result. Scores use 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. The calculation and available odds were frozen before kickoff.
Pre-match data and calculation
Aston Villa
3W2D0L5 recent matches
Goals1.80per match
Conceded1.20per match
xG1.705 matches
xGA1.80per match
Over 2.53/5Under 2.52/5
Chelsea
3W0D2L5 recent matches
Goals1.80per match
Conceded1.20per match
xG1.425 matches
xGA1.42per match
Over 2.52/5Under 2.53/5
Match prediction and stats
Aston Villa over the last 5: 3W, 2D, 0L · 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded per match.
Chelsea over the last 5: 3W, 0D, 2L · 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded per match.
The xG balance is close: Aston Villa -0.09, Chelsea 0.00. No clear edge in the current sample.
Goals total in recent matches (each team's games, not head-to-head): Aston Villa: over 2.5 in 3/5, under 2.5 in 2/5; Chelsea: over 2.5 in 2/5, under 2.5 in 3/5. The sample does not show a common totals trend.